The Dubai real estate market continues its upward trajectory, although growth momentum is becoming more moderate and increasingly selective.

In September, prices increased by +1% month-on-month, while annual growth reached +16.1%. The average price rose to AED 1,681 per sq. ft., which is already 36% above the 2014 peak and more than 106% above the 2020 market low.

The market is still expanding, but growth is now driven by specific segments rather than uniform demand.

Record-Breaking Market Activity

20,309 transactions were recorded in September, representing a +8.9% increase compared to August.

This was the strongest September on record and the second-best month in the entire historical dataset.

  • Year-to-date: over 158,000 transactions registered
  • 2025 outlook: 210,000–215,000 deals expected
  • Trend: third consecutive record year if momentum holds

Off-Plan Dominates the Market

The effective share of the primary (off-plan) market has reached approximately 76% of total sales, up from around 60% a year earlier.

  • September launches: 62 new projects
  • New supply added: 15,000+ apartments
  • 2025 total: 460+ projects, ~117,000 units
  • Apartment share: ~90% of new supply

The growing volume of launches is beginning to pressure absorption rates.

In response, developers are increasingly offering:

  • Flexible payment plans
  • Extended installment periods of 8–10 years
  • Bonuses and incentives
  • Deferred handover payment schedules

Pro Tip

As supply expands, buyer attention shifts toward projects with credible developers and realistic delivery timelines.

Resale Market Stabilization

The secondary market currently accounts for approximately 25–35% of total transactions.

The share of off-plan resales has been declining on a rolling average since the spring peak.

Fast flips are becoming less attractive due to:

  • Intensified competition
  • Higher inventory levels
  • Narrowing pricing spreads

Mortgages and Interest Rates

In September, 3,790 mortgages were issued, reflecting a –17.2% month-on-month decline.

This drop is largely attributable to reduced activity in bulk mortgage transactions, particularly large portfolio deals.

Following a recent 25 bps rate cut, the market is anticipating a second wave of demand from mortgage-driven buyers.

At current price levels and with rising rents, even a 0.25% rate adjustment materially improves affordability — especially in the AED 1–1.5 million segment, which is showing the strongest demand growth.

Calculate Your Property Revenue

Get a quick estimate of your property's potential income

Key Seasonal Trends

  • Transaction values: shifting toward the sub-AED 1.5 million range
  • AED 1.5–2 million segment: declined by –2.2 percentage points
  • Unit preference: studios and 1BR units gaining demand
  • Strategy fit: smaller units remain the most liquid for rental models

At the same time, developers are rapidly expanding primary supply, intensifying competition not only between districts, but also within individual projects.